GLOBAL MARKET & ECONOMIC SCENARIOS: THE USD, PRECIOUS METALS, AND COMMODITIES IN THE 2026 CONTEXT

The year 2026 unfolds in a unique state for the global economy: it is no longer in the acute crisis phase of 2020–2022, yet it has not entered a clear, synchronized growth cycle. After years of monetary tightening, inflation has decelerated but is not yet fully “tamed,” while geopolitical hotspots continue to create unpredictable fluctuations in prices and capital flows. In this context, global financial markets—from the US Dollar and precious metals to basic commodities—are moving according to specific scenarios rather than a linear trend.

Base Case: Fragile Stability and Market Rebalancing

In the base case scenario, the global economy in 2026 maintains moderate growth. The US and Europe avoid a deep recession, China shows improvement without a massive boom, while emerging economies grow unevenly. Inflation continues its downward trend but remains “stubborn” in certain components such as services, housing, and wages.

In this environment, the US Dollar (USD) gradually loses the strong upward momentum seen during 2022–2024. As the Fed enters a gradual rate-cutting cycle, the interest rate differential between the US and the rest of the world narrows, causing the USD to weaken slightly or move sideways within a narrow range. However, the USD does not collapse, as the US maintains relatively good growth and its role as the global reserve currency remains largely unchallenged.

For precious metals, particularly gold, the base case creates a high price floor but no explosive breakout. Gradually declining real interest rates, combined with the diversification needs of central bank reserves, help gold maintain its role as “systemic insurance.” However, without escalating systemic risks, gold primarily follows an accumulation trend, reflecting the market’s moderate defensive sentiment.

In the commodities group, energy plays a pivotal role. Oil prices in the base case are unlikely to see major surges due to relatively abundant supply and slow demand growth. This helps contain global inflation and provides “breathing room” for energy-importing economies. Conversely, industrial metals like copper and aluminum remain supported by structural demand, keeping price levels higher than historical averages.

This scenario is an environment of rebalancing: the USD is no longer the “ultimate haven,” gold maintains a defensive role, and industrial commodities reflect the long-term shifts in the global economy.

Positive Scenario: Restored Confidence and a New Commodity Cycle

The positive scenario takes shape when major uncertainties are partially resolved. The Russia-Ukraine conflict cools down, the Middle East does not escalate into a regional war, and major economies achieve a higher degree of policy stability. More importantly, China enters a distinct recovery phase, triggering a new wave of investment and trade.

In this context, the USD typically weakens more significantly. As risk appetite rises, global capital flows shift away from the USD toward riskier assets like equities, emerging market currencies, and commodities. Fed rate cuts that occur faster than expected further diminish the USD’s appeal, especially as other regions begin to show improved growth.

For gold, the positive scenario is double-edged. On one hand, a weak USD and low interest rates provide support. On the other hand, as economic confidence recovers, the demand for safe havens decreases, making it difficult for gold to break out sharply. In this scenario, gold serves more as a portfolio stabilizer than a trend leader.

In contrast, commodities take center stage. Rising energy demand alongside a recovery in manufacturing and trade could push oil prices higher, though a return to historical peaks is unlikely without a supply shock. Industrial metals, particularly copper and aluminum, benefit the most. They not only reflect the short-term recovery cycle but are also driven by long-term trends such as electrification, the energy transition, and the restructuring of global supply chains.

Negative Scenario: Geopolitical Shocks and the Return of Stagflation Fears

The negative scenario is the situation the market always seeks to hedge against. It occurs when geopolitical hotspots escalate simultaneously: the Russia-Ukraine war expands, the Middle East falls into regional conflict, or political instability hits key oil and metal-producing regions. In such a case, the global economy faces a supply shock just as demand is weakening.

In this scenario, the USD often rallies strongly. Despite internal issues, the USD remains the primary haven for global capital when systemic risk increases. Capital flows into US Treasuries and the Dollar, pushing other currencies lower, especially those of emerging economies.

Gold becomes the biggest beneficiary. History shows that during periods of geopolitical instability and stagflation fears, gold benefits from both safe-haven demand and falling real interest rates (as central banks are caught between controlling inflation and supporting growth). In a negative scenario, gold is not just a defensive tool but can become a market-leading asset.

For commodities, the reaction is highly polarized. Energy, specifically oil and gas, could spike due to supply disruptions. This pushes global inflation higher, worsening the growth outlook. Industrial metals react in two stages: initially rising due to shortage fears and increased input costs, then weakening if global manufacturing and investment stall. Metals tied closely to construction and credit, such as steel and zinc, usually suffer the most significant negative impact.

Market 2026: A Story of Probabilities

The core takeaway for 2026 is that there is no single path for the economy and the markets. The USD, precious metals, and commodities do not move independently; they are intricately woven with growth, inflation, and geopolitics.

• In the Base Case, the market searches for a new equilibrium.
• In the Positive Scenario, commodities and risk assets lead the way.
• In the Negative Scenario, the USD and Gold return to a central role.

For investors and businesses, the greatest challenge lies not in “guessing correctly,” but in the ability to prepare for multiple scenarios simultaneously. 2026, therefore, is not just a year for forecasting, but a year for risk management and flexible strategy in a reshaping world.